Housing risk and return: Evidence from a housing asset-pricing model

This paper investigates the risk-return relationship in determination of housing asset pricing. In so doing, the paper evaluates behavioral hypotheses advanced by Case and Shiller (1988, 2002, 2009) in studies of boom and post-boom housing markets. The paper specifies and tests a multi-factor housing asset pricing model. In that model, we evaluate whether the market factor as well as other measures of risk, including idiosyncratic risk, momentum, and MSA size effects, have explanatory power for metropolitan-specific housing returns. Further, we test the robustness of the asset pricing results to inclusion of controls for socioeconomic variables commonly represented in the house price literature, including changes in employment, affordability, and foreclosure incidence. We find a sizable and statistically significant influence of the market factor on MSA house price returns. Moreover we show that market betas have varied substantially over time. Also, results are largely robust to the inclusion of other explanatory variables, including standard measures of risk and other housing market fundamentals. Additional tests of model validity using the Fama-MacBeth framework offer further strong support of a positive risk and return relationship in housing. Our findings are supportive of the application of a housing investment risk-return framework in explanation of variation in metro-area cross-section and time-series US house price returns. Further, results strongly corroborate Case-Shiller survey research indicating the importance of speculative forces in the determination of U.S. housing returns

Housing Risk and Return: Evidence From a Housing Asset-Pricing Model

This paper investigates the risk-return relationship in determination of housing asset pricing. In so doing, the paper evaluates behavioral hypotheses advanced by Case and Shiller (1988, 2002, 2009) in studies of boom and post-boom housing markets. The paper specifies and tests a housing asset pricing model (H-CAPM), whereby expected returns of metropolitan-specific housing markets are equated to the market return, as represented by aggregate US house price time-series. We augment the model by examining the impact of additional risk factors including aggregate stock market returns, idiosyncratic risk, momentum, and Metropolitan Statistical Area (MSA) size effects. Further, we test the robustness of H-CAPM results to inclusion of controls for socioeconomic variables commonly represented in the house price literature, including changes in employment, affordability, and foreclosure incidence. Consistent with the traditional CAPM, we find a sizable and statistically significant influence of the market factor on MSA house price returns. Moreover we show that market betas have varied substantially over time. Also, we find the basic housing CAPM results are robust to the inclusion of other explanatory variables, including standard measures of risk and other housing market fundamentals. Additional tests of the validity of the model using the Fama-MacBeth framework offer further strong support of a positive risk and return relationship in housing. Our findings are supportive of the application of a housing investment risk-return framework in explanation of variation in metro-area cross-section and time-series US house price returns. Further, results strongly corroborate Case-Shiller behavioral research indicating the importance of speculative forces in the determination of U.S. housing returns.asset pricing, house price returns, risk factors

Empire, reform, and internationalism : Britain and the changing politics of opium, 1875-1931

Throughout the nineteenth century, opium occupied a position of great significance within the British Empire, comprising by the 1870s as much as 17% of the total revenues of the British India Government. Opium also made up the greater part of British exports to China, a legacy of early-century market exploitation and highly favourable commercial treaties signed following two opium wars fought by the two countries. Between the emergence of an organised anti-opium movement in 1875 and the close of the final international Geneva Opium Conference of 1931, British opium policy experienced a complete transformation. The development of British responses to the issue of opium offers a case study in the cultural history of international relations, while also offering insights into developments in the political scene in Britain. A critical issue at the heart of the transition from elite to mass politics in Britain at the crux of the emergence of a new socio-political landscape after the passage of the 1867 Reform Act, the increasing importance of public opinion and popular politics, the course of debate over opium characterised shifts in the British domestic political scene, highlighting the defining transitions in political action and social activism of the period. Opium was also a central focal point in the transformation of the global geopolitical environment at the turn of the twentieth century, with the emergence of hostile rival powers seeking to challenge British commercial and geopolitical pre-eminence, particularly in the form of the United States and Japan in Asia, with a radically different and reforming American approach to imperial policy in the region. This thesis examines these transitions, exploring the different phases of opium policy, and identifying the driving forces, causational factors, and continuities that defined these processes of reform, comprising a re-reading of the history of opium reform as a critical juncture within the cultural sphere of international relations

Methods of Revision in Sixteenth-Century English Cycle Drama

This dissertation contends that guilds-folk in sixteenth-century England made their own changes to the play-texts of civic drama and that these changes remain visible to us in the manuscripts which preserve the plays. Further, it argues that the actors and pageant-makers themselves often made these revisions, rather than the civic or ecclesial authorities traditionally credited for rewriting the pageants. These changes, introduced in production and transferred into the texts, helped keep the plays vibrant and successful throughout most of the sixteenth century and reflect the practical and local concerns of their participants. This work continues the historical investigations into pageant performance carried out by the numerous contributors to the Records of Early English Drama project. These scholars\u27 efforts compiling, studying and publishing guild and city accounts of play production connect the performance of civic drama to the towns and cities wherein the plays were performed. By arguing that actors and pageant masters prepared their texts with the same care that historical records show they took with production and promotion, my dissertation offers a new way to read textual variance in the plays themselves. Read thusly, revisions in the plays clearly record a response to local concerns, economic change, or audience reception

Results of Millikan Library Forced Vibration Testing

This report documents an investigation into the dynamic properties of Millikan Library under forced excitation. On July 10, 2002, we performed frequency sweeps from 1 Hz to 9.7 Hz in both the East-West (E-W) and North-South (N-S) directions using a roof level vibration generator. Natural frequencies were identified at 1.14 Hz (E-W fundamental mode), 1.67 Hz (N-S fundamental mode), 2.38 Hz (Torsional fundamental mode), 4.93 Hz (1st E-Wovertone), 6.57 Hz (1st Torsional overtone), 7.22 Hz (1st N-S overtone), and at 7.83 Hz (2nd E-Wovertone). The damping was estimated at 2.28% for the fundamental E-W mode and 2.39% for the N-S fundamental mode. On August 28, 2002, a modal analysis of each natural frequency was performed using the dense instrumentation network located in the building. For both the E-W and N-S fundamental modes, we observe a nearly linear increase in displacement with height, except at the ground floor which appears to act as a hinge. We observed little basement movement for the E-W mode, while in the N-S mode 30% of the roof displacement was due to basement rocking and translation. Both the E-W and N-S fundamental modes are best modeled by the first mode of a theoretical bending beam. The higher modes are more complex and not well represented by a simple structural system

Comparing Wealth Effects: The Stock Market Versus the Housing Market

We examine the link between increases in housing wealth, financial wealth, and consumer spending. We rely upon a panel of 14 countries observed annually for various periods during the past 25 years and a panel of U.S. states observed quarterly during the 1980s and 1990s. We impute the aggregate value of owner-occupied housing, the value of financial assets, and measures of aggregate consumption for each of the geographic units over time. We estimate regressions relating consumption to income and wealth measures, finding a statistically significant and rather large effect of housing wealth upon household consumption.

Wealth Effects Revisited 1978-2009

We re-examine the link between changes in housing wealth, financial wealth, and consumer spending. We extend a panel of U.S. states observed quarterly during the seventeen-year period, 1982 through 1999, to the thirty-one year period, 1978 through 2009. Using techniques reported previously, we impute the aggregate value of owner-occupied housing, the value of financial assets, and measures of aggregate consumption for each of the geographic units over time. We estimate regression models in levels, first differences and in error-correction form, relating per capita consumption to per capita income and wealth. We find a statistically significant and rather large effect of housing wealth upon household consumption. This effect is consistently larger than the effect of stock market wealth upon consumption. This reinforces the conclusions reported in our previous analysis. In contrast to our previous analysis, however, we do find -- based on data which include the recent volatility in asset markets -- that the effects of declines in housing wealth in reducing consumption are at least as large as the effects of increases in housing wealth in increasing the course of household consumption.Consumption, Nonfinancial wealth, Housing market, Real estate

Comparing Wealth Effects: The Stock Market versus the Housing Market

We examine the link between increases in housing wealth, financial wealth, and consumer spending. We rely upon a panel of 14 countries observed annually for various periods during the past 25 years and a panel of U.S. states observed quarterly during the 1980s and 1990s. We impute the aggregate value of owner-occupied housing, the value of financial assets, and measures of aggregate consumption for each of the geographic units over time. We estimate regressions relating consumption to income and wealth measures, finding a statistically significant and rather large effect of housing wealth upon household consumption.Consumption, nonfinancial wealth, housing market, real estate

Measuring Learning Complexity with Criteria Epitomizers

In prior papers, beginning with the seminal work by Freivalds et al. 1995, the notion of intrinsic complexity is used to analyze the learning complexity of sets of functions in a Gold-style learning setting. Herein are pointed out some weaknesses of this notion. Offered is an alternative based on epitomizing sets of functions -- sets, which are learnable under a given learning criterion, but not under other criteria which are not at least as powerful. To capture the idea of epitomizing sets, new reducibility notions are given based on robust learning (closure of learning under certain classes of operators). Various degrees of epitomizing sets are characterized as the sets complete with respect to corresponding reducibility notions! These characterizations also provide an easy method for showing sets to be epitomizers, and they are, then, employed to prove several sets to be epitomizing. Furthermore, a scheme is provided to generate easily very strong epitomizers for a multitude of learning criteria. These strong epitomizers are so-called self-learning sets, previously applied by Case & Koetzing, 2010. These strong epitomizers can be generated and employed in a myriad of settings to witness the strict separation in learning power between the criteria so epitomized and other not as powerful criteria

Dems and the GOP are Miles Apart on Yet Another Issue: Public Lands

It’s unlikely the presidential candidates will field a question about public lands during their last debate. But public land is an issue that concerns many Americans, with arguments over it flaring up with cyclical regularity